https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-exg92-aa6664
Jordan and Adam kick off their new podcast Dynasty Football Analytics
All posts by Jordan McNamara
Antonio Brown to Buffalo?: Embrace the Value of Narratives
With the news breaking overnight that Antonio Brown appears headed to Buffalo, Twitter nearly exploded. Nearly all of the reaction was a death knell for Brown’s production.
Reason to be Skeptical
There are a couple of reasons to be skeptical about Ian Rapaport’s report.
Sources: The #Steelers are closing in on a deal to send star WR Antonio Brown to the Buffalo #Bills. There it is.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 8, 2019
First, there was no compensation cited in the tweet or a follow-up appearance on NFL Network. A trend in these situations, like earlier in the day with Case Keenum trade to Washington, is for compensation to trickle out soon after the initial breaking news. That has yet to happen.
Two, no one has corroborated the report. When big news breaks, other reporters, like Adam Schefter are typically close behind. That did not occur prior to 1 AM.
In fact, Bills beat report Vic Carucci shot down the report.
An NFL source says #Bills have inquired about Antonio Brown with the #Steelers, but no deal is imminent. In fact, another league source termed it “unlikely.”
— Vic Carucci (@viccarucci) March 8, 2019
Ian Rapoport is as plugged in as any NFL reporter and his reporting indicated multiple sources. A trade of Antonio Brown would be a massive story and falsely reporting the news would be humiliating for Rapoport. Rapoport knows this. Is it possible he is wrong? Yes. But it is not the type of story Rapoport would run with on a source he did not trust. If he did and is wrong, it could ruin his career.
The coming hours are likely to shed more light on the trade.
Dynasty Implications
If Brown is traded to Buffalo, his market price would certainly drop. At DynastyLeagueFootball.com, Brown’s ADP is 23.67, so right at the 2/3 turn.
The reaction to a Brown trade to Buffalo was almost universally negative on Twitter.
Antonio Brown’s fantasy value would be better with:
Packers
Cardinals
Bears
Giants
Lions
Redskins
Eagles
Steelers
Rams
49ers
Browns
Colts
Cowboys
Chiefs
Chargers
Broncos
Jets
Pats
Raiders
Titans
Vikings
Falcons
Dolphins
Saints
Bengals
Seahawks
Bucs
Panthers
Jags
Ravens
Texans
— Mitchell Renz (@MitchellRenz365) March 8, 2019
Cut Antonio Brown’s production in HALF
— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) March 8, 2019
In The Analytics of Dynasty, I wrote about something I called 8% decision making. A top 8% outcome is required to finish as a championship dynasty team. Consistently winning championship requires a certain mindset that embraces risk at the right cost.
Below is an excerpt from the book about risk-taking and narratives.
Dynasty team building requires risk if you are going to be a championship team. The price for Brown will likely drop 4 or more rounds in startup drafts which should be reflected in the trading market. Josh Allen struggled at times as a rookie, but two key points are worth remembering. One, Allen averaged 11 Air Yards Per Attempt according to NFL Next Gen Stats, the highest in the league. Two, Ben Roethlisberger showed signs of a steep decline, particularly with reduced efficiency when targeting Brown.
Is Allen better than Roethlisberger? No. But he does not have to be if the “Josh Allen is inaccurate” narrative is going to drop 40 startup spots in valuation. If Allen completes 55% of his passes to Brown while targeting him 14 yards down the field, Brown will be able to Embrace the Variance.
Update: Adam Schefter has quoted Buffalo GM Brandon Beane: GM Brandon Beane: “We inquired about Antonio Brown on Tuesday, and kept talks open with the Steelers. We had positive discussions, but ultimately it didn’t make sense for either side. As great a player as Antonio Brown is, we have moved on and our focus is on free agency.”
The Danger of Reaching on Good Landing Spots: RB Edition
I saw a twitter thread the other day that inspired some research.
If the Chiefs draft a running back in the 4th round of the 2019 NFL Draft, Damien Williams is…
— Curtis Patrick (@CPatrickNFL) February 28, 2019
The market reaction to this was essentially a death knell to Williams. Continue reading The Danger of Reaching on Good Landing Spots: RB Edition
Reflections Through the First 100 Picks of a Superflex Draft
With more than 100 picks in there are some early conclusions from the ongoing Superflex draft I am in. While historical Superflex data is limited, each draft can create a better feel for the pacing of positions and when positional runs will occur.
Continue reading Reflections Through the First 100 Picks of a Superflex Draft
Superflex Startup: An Analytics of Dynasty Build
I joined a startup with my friend Tim Torch that is ongoing this week. We thought it would be a good opportunity to employ some of the principles from The Analytics of Dynasty in the startup to build a strong core.
Format
The format is Superflex with 4PT passing TDs and 1.75 PPR scoring for TE. The remainder of the scoring is stock PPR. The total roster is 36 players deep with starting lineups of start 1QB/1RB/1WR/1TE/1SF/5 flex.
Rookie pick placeholders are in the draft with a rookie draft occurring after the NFL Draft. Continue reading Superflex Startup: An Analytics of Dynasty Build
The Analytics of Dynasty: What Those Who Ordered Have Said
The Analytics of Dynasty is available for purchase. If you are wondering if you should order, here is some of what readers have said about the book:
- “Loving the book so far- the rule of 7 can be a game changer as my teams come out of the productive struggle heading into years 2/3”
- “Yes! Can’t wait to read this on company time. Need to restrain myself this weekend.”
- “Just started reading, well worth the price already.”
- “This book is must-read if you are serious about dynasty. You are missing out if you don’t get it
Make sure to get your copy today!
Click here to order your copy now for $30 to get an edge on your opponents.
Click here if you want to order the book and a 1 on 1 strategy session to talk about team building for $50.
Available Now: The Analytics of Dynasty
The Analytics of Dynasty is now available for immediate download. After months of pre-orders and writing, the final product is now available.
If you purchase now, you can begin reading immediately.
The Analytics of Dynasty has some key features that are different from common dynasty strategies. Some key areas that will differentiate your teams include:
- Age impacts positions differently;
- Focusing on successful profiles instead of picking individual players;
- Identifying and avoiding common narratives that are plain wrong;
- How to properly value rookie picks.
One of the critical parts of the book that is different is the use of Wins Over Replacement Player (WORP) and Adjusted Wins Over Replacement Player (aWORP). These are two metrics that identify key value opportunities that you will only find in The Analytics of Dynasty.
Click here to order your copy now for $30 to get an edge on your opponents.
Click here if you want to order the book and a 1 on 1 strategy session to talk about team building for $50.
YouTube Video: The Analytics of Dynasty Update
I jumped on Youtube to do some discussions and overview of The Analytics of Dynasty. You can find the link below
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2EZvri2vkg&feature=youtu.be&a
Analytics of Dynasty: Perfect Offseason Gift
With championship week 16 upon us, the offseason is only hours away. Now is the perfect time to get an edge in offseason trades, rookie drafts, and startups, by ordering The Analytics of Dynasty.
The Analytics of Dynasty covers a decade of statistical, ADP, efficiency, and production data that will help you make better dynasty decisions. There is a full range of dynasty league topics, including:
- Startup draft strategy
- Rookie draft strategy
- Trade strategy
- Player selection
- Roster construction
There are also new metrics and strategies that measure a player’s impact on a dynasty team’s success, including
- Wins Over Replacement Player (WORP)
- Adjusted Wins Over Replacement Player (aWORP)
- Rule of 7
- Rule of 97
The book also provides studies of a variety of topics and comes to conclusions that are contrarian to several mainstream beliefs on topics, including
- Positional efficiency
- Positional hit rates
- Rookie draft hit rates
- Optimal player selection
I hear some of these narratives every week on podcasts and read them in writing. With The Analytics of Dynasty, you will be able to exploit them in drafts and trades. The book will help you make more efficient and winning dynasty rosters.
There are two options to buy
The Analytics of Dynasty will be released in PDF form in late January. Have a startup draft before then? Let me know and I’ll get you some advanced strategy points.
Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and good luck in your championship games!
Kareem Hunt Update (Video)
I did a quick YouTube Live last night on the legal aspects and dynasty value of the Kareem Hunt situation.
There is a link here: http://youtu.be/1x2_8orsjVU?a
Fat Tails: The Impact of James Conner
Through week 9 of the NFL season, James Conner has 206.5 PPR points and is currently the RB3. The impact of that has been massive both this season and historically.
James Conner’s Profile
James Conner’s profile was interesting when he was drafted. There were a lot of signs for high-level potential when he was drafted by the Steelers:
- Prototypically sized (6’1″ 233lbs)
- College career with workhorse workload
- Good offense
- Day 2 pick (105th)
Just by draft pedigree alone, he would project as an early 2nd (Picks 13-18) round rookie pick where the average RB is the 107th pick in the NFL Draft.
Why Season Long Finishes Are Terrible Metrics
James Conner has 136 PPR points this season. That total would have been good for RB36 in 2017. That is a pretty good pace through 6 weeks, especially for a player thought to be a backup in season.
An RB36 season long finish in 2017 would have put Conner behind Tarik Cohen, Isaiah Crowell, Jamaal Williams and Jay Ajayi, but ahead of Orleans Darkwa, Derrick Henry, and Rex Burkhead.
If you came into the season knowing you would get a RB36 season out of Conner would you have been satisfied with season?
Asking the Right Questions
Asking about James Conner’s final season standing is terrible process. If you read or hear someone discussing Conner in the offseason saying, “yeah, but he only finished as RB 20-something” read something else or turn the channel.
The right question to ask about players, especially players like James Conner is how many wins do they add to your team? For Conner in 2018, he has added .94 wins over replacement player (WORP). Only four RBs have produced more through week 6, Gurley, Gordon, Kamara and Barkley.
WORP is a metric similar to WAR, or Wins Above Replacement, in baseball. Simply put, WORP represents how many wins a player adds above a replacement level substitute player. For the purposes of my stats, I measure WORP from weeks 1 through 13, and the replacement player is a set weekly finisher. (There is some decision making that goes into those numbers which I delve into in detail in the book.)
WORP gets to what really matters in fantasy football: winning.
Final season standings are a terrible metric to measure player, because every point counts the same. Except every point should not count the same in season value calculation.
For example: Would you rather take a Player A who scores 100 points in 5 weeks or Player B who score 100 points in 10 weeks?
Player A is only usable for a short time frame, but has a high ceiling. On the flip side, Player B is widely usable scoring a solid floor of 10 points per game.
The answer is clear: Player A. Player A has made a signficant impact in a 5 week timespan that likely has your team with a winning record. Through that period Player A has likely added you about .4 regular season wins.
Those who answer Player B are missing the significant boom weeks, and the benefit of knowing when not to play Player A. They are also starting a below replacement level player with about -.3 WORP.
In the 5 other weeks player A is not playing, in a worst case scenario, you start a player who averages 7 points. Instead of Player A scoring 100 points through 5 weeks, he and the replacement player score 135 points, a 35% increase over player B. Through my research that is a low estimate for a replacement player. Instead you can expect closer to 12-13 points, especially with the proper teambuild.
Where a player has a concentrated level of production through 6 weeks like Conner, he has an immense impact on your team. Consider, of the RBs around RB36 finished last season, Burkhead (RB39) was the best with .42 WORP, while higher seasonal finisher Jamaal Williams (34) produced -.04 WORP. If James Conner retired tomorrow, he would have more than twice as much of an impact than Burkhead in 2017, despite playing only 6 games to Burkhead’s 10.
With the narrative that Le’Veon Bell is likely to come back in week 8, James Conner’s lead role looks to be closing for the time being. That presumes Bell is coming back, plays week 8, plays well, and does not get hurt. That is a lot of presumptions in an uncertain scenario. Being bullish on Conner is a good play given every risk factor points in his favor. In a worst case scenario, where Conner gets hurt and misses the rest of the season he’s still no worst than a 4th round startup pick when Bell leaves in free agency. At best, Conner is a 2nd round startup pick.
With his difference making impact, you cannot sell him low, and should instead look to buy him. For comparison, no RB in the 2019 class can approach Conner’s value.
Any points that you lose from Conner not playing in games this season can be replaced by Theo Riddick-types, trades, or other developments from backup RBs.
Takeaway
The narratives and talking points in dynasty football are easy to exploit if we look at them differently than the consensus. WORP is a great example. Loading up on “Conner type” RBs has a massive upside. It’s also highly efficient and practical inseason.
My work for the book is looking a lot at WORP right now. Looking for what WORP is like in startup drafts, rookie drafts, and positionally is a highly exploitable and something unique you will find in my book. The Conner example is a classic one and is an example of the efficiencies found in my research.
If you have questions, feel free to let me know on twitter @mcnamaradynasty
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https://analyticsofdynasty.com/product/the-analytics-of-dynasty-with-strategy-session/
5 Hours Left to Pre-Order The Analytics of Dynasty for $25
Tonight is your last chance to pre-order The Analytics of Dynasty for $25.
The pre-order will get you the book when it comes out in January and a one-on-one strategy session.
The book has a lot of content including:
1. Startup hit rates
2. Rookie-Veteran value trade chart
3. Positional scoring history
4. Why drafting a lot of wide receivers is a bad strategy
5. Draft and trade tips to give you an edge
The content will give you an edge over your fellow owners that you can use to improve your teams in your dynasty leagues.
Do not miss out, pre-order tonight by 1159PM before the pre-order offer expires.
Deadline tonight: Hours Left to Pre-Order for $25
Today is the final day of my pre-order offer: If you pre-order The Analytics of Dynasty by midnight tonight, you will get the book for $25 and a one-on-one strategy session.
The strategy session will cover team building, roster construction, and trading tips based on the research from the book. By ordering early, you will get a sneak peak of the data to use against your opponents before the book is released in January.
Some of the topics in the book include:
- Better startup decision making
- Optimized rookie draft strategies
- How to value future picks in trades
- How to hit on your picks at a higher rate.
Some of the research for the book is contrary to common narratives and can provide you a way to exploit biases in drafts and trades.
I have detailed some of the findings from my research at including
- How the “Boom Bust” narrative about Brandin Cooks is demonstrably false;
- Why Kalen Ballage is a must selection in the second round of rookie drafts;
- How truly rare Arian Foster was as a running back.
Make sure to pre-order today to lock in the pre-order price of $25 and a one-on-one strategy session. You only have hours left!
One Week Left to Pre-Order for $25
There is only one week left to pre-order The Analytics of Dynasty my upcoming ebook on dynasty football targeted at giving you a true edge in your leagues.
If you preorder for $25 on or before September 1st, you will get The Analytics of Dynasty when it is released in January and a one-on-one strategy session. The strategy session will cover team building, roster construction, and trading tips based on the research from the book. By ordering early, you will get a sneak peak of the data to use against your opponents before the book is released in January.
Some of the topics in the book include:
- Better startup decision making
- Optimized rookie draft strategies
- How to value future picks in trades
- How to hit on your picks at a higher rate.
Some of the research for the book is contrary to common narratives and can provide you a way to exploit biases in drafts and trades.
I have detailed some of the findings from my research at including
- How the “Boom Bust” narrative about Brandin Cooks is demonstrably false;
- Why Kalen Ballage is a must selection in the second round of rookie drafts;
- How truly rare Arian Foster was as a running back.
Make sure to pre-order on or before September 1st to lock in the $25 price and a strategy session!
10 Days Left to Pre-Order The Analytics of Dynasty!
There are only 10 days left to pre-order The Analytics of Dynasty my upcoming ebook on dynasty football targeted at giving you a true edge in your leagues.
If you preorder for $25 on or before September 1st, you will get The Analytics of Dynasty when it is released in January and a one-on-one strategy session. The strategy session will cover team building, roster construction, and trading tips based on the research from the book. By ordering early, you will get a sneak peak of the data to use against your opponents before the book is released in January.
Some of the topics in the book include:
- Better startup decision making
- Optimized rookie draft strategies
- How to value future picks in trades
- How to hit on your picks at a higher rate.
Some of the research for the book is contrary to common narratives and can provide you with a way to exploit biases in drafts and trades.
I have detailed some of the findings from my research at analyticsofdynasty.com including
- How the “Boom Bust” narrative about Brandin Cooks is demonstrably false;
- Why Kalen Ballage is a must selection in the second round of rookie drafts;
- How truly rare Arian Foster was as a running back.
Make sure to pre-order on or before September 1st to lock in the $25 price and a strategy session!
My Appearance on All In
- I joined Chris Whitman for a strategy session on his All In podcast. Give it a listen https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-wzudu-97a584
My appearance on Dynasty Trades HQ
Here’s the link to a recent podcast I did with Dynasty Trades HQ.
https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/dynastytradeshq-podcast/id1327121536?mt=2
The Facts About Brandin Cooks are Contrarian and Why Narratives Suck
Some of the things that get accepted as true in fantasy football are mind-numbing. The fact that Brandin Cooks is a “boom bust WR” is one of them.
The Narrative
My inspiration for writing The Analytics of Dynasty was discovering through my research that some of the narratives in dynasty strategy are simply not true. These are things that get said, repeated, regurgitated, become gospel and accepted as true. When these types of narratives are wrong, they become profitable areas for good dynasty owners to exploit.
The “boom bust” label on Brandin Cooks is a common narrative. The analysis of Cooks based on the narrative sounds something like “He is small, doesn’t see consistent targets, and is reliant on big plays.” As a result, the narrative says he is a highly variant from week to week. The narrative would say Cooks might have 5 or 6 big weeks, while the others are not useful and you cannot predict when they come.
I posted the poll below on my Twitter account, and it confirmed the narrative has seeped into the dynasty conscious as 62% of the respondents said they considered Brandin Cooks a “boom bust WR.”
Do you consider Brandin Cooks a “boom bust WR”? @DynastyTradesHQ @MyFantasyLeague
— Jordan McNamara (@McNamaraDynasty) August 18, 2018
The problem: it just simply isn’t true.
Brandin Cooks
Since 2015, Cooks has finished 13th, 11th, and 15th at the receiver position. Only 5 WRs have finished 15th or better in the past three seasons
- Julio Jones
- Antonio Brown
- Jarvis Landry
- Larry Fitzgerald
- Doug Baldwin
The narrative would says, “Fine, he finishes that high, but his production is in only a few weeks, and he has a lot of bust weeks!”
During that time, Cooks has finished with 26 starter (top 24) weeks or 54% of the time. In other words, he booms more than busts.
Julio Jones and Antonio Brown, two receivers who finished no worse than 7th in any season in the past three years, finished with the high at the position with 33.
Narrative: “See, he finishes with 2.3 fewer starter weeks per season than the elite guys!”
Since 2015, Cooks ranks 8th among WRs in starter weeks, behind only Jones, Brown, Hopkins, Demaryius Thomas, Landry, Mike Evans, and Fitzgerald. Cooks only finished two starter weeks behind “Mr. High Floor” Larry Fitzgerald.
Interestingly, over the past two seasons, Cooks finished with 19 starter weeks, 1 more than Larry Fitzgerald (18).
Over the past three years, Cooks has outpaced other “high floor” players like A.J. Green (25), Doug Baldwin (23) and Golden Tate (19). Cooks is one of just 10 WRs who has been more likely than not to finish with as a starter in a given week over the past three seasons.
Maybe we should start calling him “More Boom than Bust.” But with the easy bailout of a narrative, it seems unlikely to take hold.
Takeaway
There are inefficiencies and edges in the dynasty marketplace and perceived value is a powerful one. Specifically, Brandin Cooks is likely undervalued in your dynasty league because he is “boom bust.”
In my research for the book, I found a lot of these gospel ideas just are not supported by facts. I could keep exposing them here, but then I would give away your edge. If you want a true edge on your opponents, pre-order The Analytics of Dynasty. If you pre-order before September 1st, for only $25 you will get the book when it comes out in January and get a one-on-one strategy session where we can chat about more inefficiencies.
My Appearance on the UTH Weekly Show
I pinch hit for Katie and Tim on the UTH weekly show this week. Chad and I get geeky weekly on the premium side, but this is only my third weekly show appearance.
https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/dynasty-fantasy-football-under-the-helmet/id606186284?mt=2
Thanks Chad for having me on. We talked about news, notes, potential league winners, and The Analytics of Dynasty! Pre-order now for $25 and get a one-on-one strategy session with an advanced view of the analytics!