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Golden Tate: Positive Regression Candidate

With the news of Sterling Shepard’s finger injury and Corey Coleman tearing his ACL, the New York Giants have a wide open receiving corps.

With Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley stud young options at tight end and running back, the wide receiving corp is less critical to the offense.

Yet, there are still plenty of targets to go around.

The Giants threw 583 passing attempts last season, with 121 to Barkley and 64 to Engram (11 games). Odell Beckham was targeted 124 times in only 12 games, and with his departure to Cleveland, there is plenty of opportunity for volume in the offense.

Outside of Shepard, who was targeted 107 times, the highest target was Rhett Ellison with 34.

Golden Tate is in a prime opportunity for volume, the key to any wide receiver’s prospects in season. In the past 5 seasons, Tate has been targeted 144, 128, 135, 120, and 113 (Detroit and Philadelphia).

Over the past five years, Tate averaged 1.79, 1.65, 1.65, 1.87, and 1.60 points per target. Notably, Tate was .21 points per target below the 2018 average, but otherwise was close to the 1.65 average points per target between 2008 and 2018.

The stat is important in PPR scoring, with very little predictability year over year. I recently wrote at NumberFire about buy low targets based on regressions that details the lack of predictability year over year.

The offense projects to be bad in New York with a potential quarterback battle with Eli Manning and Daniel Jones, but the target number is more important than the quarterback or the offense.

Tate is on a trajectory towards a healthy target share and can be a quality bridge player, despite bad narratives about the offense. Buy the targets and fade the narratives.