Posted on Leave a comment

What You Will Get From The Analytics of Dynasty

The Analytics of Dynasty is designed to make you a better dynasty player. The book is a deep dive into statistical, production, and market research in dynasty football from 2008 through 2017. The information in the book will allow you to make better strategic decisions in startup drafts, rookie drafts, and trades.

A lot of the advice on the open market is tactical advice.

“Should I trade player A and B for player C and D?”

“You should take player X at 1.03 in a rookie draft.”

“Player Z is a good value in round 6 of a startup.”

That type of advice is nice but does not move the needle much for your dynasty win rate.

The type of analysis in this book will.

The book will focus on some of the following topics:

  • How to exploit a player’s age.
  • How much does NFL draft position matter for rookies?
  • The type of production you should strive for with a pick in a draft.
  • How to value rookies versus veterans.
  • Startup draft strategies that beat ADP.
  • The single most important thing that can increase your likelihood of winning a championship.
  • How win-now startup draft strategies go wrong and how to fix them.
  • The Rule of 7

This is just a preview of some of the topics in The Analytics of Dynasty that will increase the likelihood of winning a dynasty league.

Posted on Leave a comment

Golden Tate: Positive Regression Candidate

With the news of Sterling Shepard’s finger injury and Corey Coleman tearing his ACL, the New York Giants have a wide open receiving corps.

With Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley stud young options at tight end and running back, the wide receiving corp is less critical to the offense.

Yet, there are still plenty of targets to go around.

The Giants threw 583 passing attempts last season, with 121 to Barkley and 64 to Engram (11 games). Odell Beckham was targeted 124 times in only 12 games, and with his departure to Cleveland, there is plenty of opportunity for volume in the offense.

Outside of Shepard, who was targeted 107 times, the highest target was Rhett Ellison with 34.

Golden Tate is in a prime opportunity for volume, the key to any wide receiver’s prospects in season. In the past 5 seasons, Tate has been targeted 144, 128, 135, 120, and 113 (Detroit and Philadelphia).

Over the past five years, Tate averaged 1.79, 1.65, 1.65, 1.87, and 1.60 points per target. Notably, Tate was .21 points per target below the 2018 average, but otherwise was close to the 1.65 average points per target between 2008 and 2018.

The stat is important in PPR scoring, with very little predictability year over year. I recently wrote at NumberFire about buy low targets based on regressions that details the lack of predictability year over year.

The offense projects to be bad in New York with a potential quarterback battle with Eli Manning and Daniel Jones, but the target number is more important than the quarterback or the offense.

Tate is on a trajectory towards a healthy target share and can be a quality bridge player, despite bad narratives about the offense. Buy the targets and fade the narratives.