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Storylines to Watch: Third Year Second Round Running Backs 

With the off season in full effect, I’m highlighting a list of eight story lines I am watching in the off season.  One each day that draw on threads from The Analytics of Dynasty 2020 Edition.

Third Year Second Round Running Backs 

28% of running backs drafted in the second round of the NFL Draft who missed the first two years hit for a top 24 seasonal finish in their career.  The number only drops to 25% with a miss in Y3, but this places Derrius Guice (RB27 in February ADP) , Kerryon Johnson (RB23) and Ronald Jones (RB39) in worse prior history than the market appreciates.  Guice and Johnson have been hampered by injury history, with the best performance coming from Ronald Jones with an RB25 finish in 2019 and is also the cheapest.

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Storylines to Watch: TE Value in 2020 Drafts

With the off season in full effect, I’m highlighting a list of eight story lines I am watching in the off season.  One each day that draw on threads from The Analytics of Dynasty 2020 Edition.

Tight End May Have Value This Year

The tight end position was largely valueless in terms of depressed pedigree last year.  This year, O.J. Howard (TE14 in February ADP) and David Njoku (TE16) are at crossroads of their career.  Both seem like misfits on their team, but represent strong profiles as first round tight ends.  The differences in their resumes are notable.  First round tight ends with three years of experience and no top 12 finishes like Howard, hit 50% of the time for a top 12 seasonal finish.  On the other hand, first round tight ends with a top 12 seasonal finish like Njoku, hit 81% of the time for another top 12 seasonal finish.  Add in the Austin Hooper (TE6) and Hunter Henry (TE8) who are free agents with late risers in 2019 in the form of Mike Gisecki (TE13) and Tyler Higbee (TE12), and you have major tight end value fluctuation.

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Storylines to Watch: Dak vs Lamar

With the off season in full effect, I’m highlighting a list of eight story lines I am watching in the off season.  One each day that draw on threads from The Analytics of Dynasty 2020 Edition.

Value Spread Between Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson’s 2019 was a massive QB1 finish.  He is certainly inside the line of top 6 QB finishers who project to long-term success (see the Superflex chapter!), but he was supported by an unrealistic 8.9% touchdown rate and historic rushing output.  Prescott, on the other hand, who finished as QB2 had a more realistic 5% touchdown rate on the NFL’s top offense in total yardage.  Jackson is going at QB2 while Prescott is going at QB5 in February ADP and is a dark horse candidate for QB1 in 2020.