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Analytics of Dynasty: Perfect Offseason Gift

With championship week 16 upon us, the offseason is only hours away. Now is the perfect time to get an edge in offseason trades, rookie drafts, and startups, by ordering The Analytics of Dynasty

The Analytics of Dynasty covers a decade of statistical, ADP, efficiency, and production data that will help you make better dynasty decisions.  There is a full range of dynasty league topics, including:

  • Startup draft strategy
  • Rookie draft strategy
  • Trade strategy
  • Player selection
  • Roster construction

There are also new metrics and strategies that measure a player’s impact on a dynasty team’s success, including

  • Wins Over Replacement Player (WORP)
  • Adjusted Wins Over Replacement Player (aWORP)
  • Rule of 7
  • Rule of 97

The book also provides studies of a variety of topics and comes to conclusions that are contrarian to several mainstream beliefs on topics, including

  • Positional efficiency
  • Positional hit rates
  • Rookie draft hit rates
  • Optimal player selection

I hear some of these narratives every week on podcasts and read them in writing.  With The Analytics of Dynasty, you will be able to exploit them in drafts and trades.  The book will help you make more efficient and winning dynasty rosters. 

There are two options to buy

  1. The Analytics of Dynasty – $30.
  2. The Analytics of Dynasty with a one-on-one strategy session – $50. 

The Analytics of Dynasty will be released in PDF form in late January.  Have a startup draft before then?  Let me know and I’ll get you some advanced strategy points. 

Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and good luck in your championship games!

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Fat Tails: The Impact of James Conner

Through week 9 of the NFL season, James Conner has 206.5 PPR points and is currently the RB3.  The impact of that has been massive both this season and historically.

James Conner’s Profile

James Conner’s profile was interesting when he was drafted.  There were a lot of signs for high-level potential when he was drafted by the Steelers:

  • Prototypically sized (6’1″ 233lbs)
  • College career with workhorse workload
  • Good offense
  • Day 2 pick (105th)

Just by draft pedigree alone, he would project as an early 2nd (Picks 13-18) round rookie pick where the average RB is the 107th pick in the NFL Draft.

Continue reading Fat Tails: The Impact of James Conner

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Hitting from Deep in Startup Drafts at RB

Since 2008, there have been 612 RBs with yearly startup ADPs between rounds 11 and 20. Only 1 has hit as a top 6 running back twice in the three years after he was selected in that range: Arian Foster in 2009.

Foster finished as RB1 in Y2 and RB3 in Y3 and then continued into Y4 as RB3 and Y6 as RB6 before fading off (Y5 was an injury-filled season).  His production of 4 top 6 finishes at the RB position would be high for an elite pick but is unmatched deep in startup drafts.

Below is a chart that you might find useful in startup drafts, and is a preview of The Analytics of Dynasty. The chart is organized by rounds from left to right, and show the rate of RBs producing top 6 finishes by year after their selection in that round of startup drafts. There is a steep drop off outside of round 3 in Y1, while there are opportunities to hit in the mid rounds, largely with younger players, beyond Y1. A common debate in the dynasty is the value of youth, but the value of longevity is notable in the mid rounds, where younger backs progress to match far earlier rounds in Y3.

As the research of The Analytics of Dynasty continues, this is a conclusion that finds continuous support. Pre-order The Analytics of Dynasty and you can chat with me about this and much more in a one-on-one strategy session before the start of the 2018 season.