Perhaps the best statistic for predicting wide receiver success in the NFL is wide receiver breakout age.  Breakout age is the age at which a player produces a given dominator rating.

Dominator rating is the percentage of receiving yards plus the percentage of receiving touchdowns divided by two.  The percentage of receiving yards or receiving touchdowns a player produces is known as the market share.

Dominator Rating = (Market Share Receiving Yards+Market Share Receiving Touchdowns)/2

The premise is simple: wide receivers who have a higher dominator rating at a younger age tend to be better than those who produce lower dominators. Likewise, those wide receivers who breakout younger are better than those who breakout later.

Breakouts can be measured by different dominator ratings.  The below chart includes the age a player first produces a 20% dominator rating along with the age a player first produces a 30% dominator rating.  For those who produce 30% dominator rating, the percentile of their 30% breakout age is also included.

The remaining columns include the Expected Draft Position (EDP) from grindingthemocks.com.  The final four columns show the base rate of producing a top 24 seasonal finish.  Each player is assigned a base rate by the age of their first 20% breakout, and grouped by 18 and 19 year old breakouts, 20 years old or older breakouts, and no breakouts.  The prior hit rate of players in a given round is shown in the given column.

The chart can be used to think about potential ranges of outcomes based on pedigree along with preparing to stack up your draft board.

Continue reading Rookie Drafts: Wide Receiver Breakout Age Pedigree Matrix →