Prospect profiles of Amon Ra St. Brown and Tutu Atwell including tape reviews, metrics, athletic profiles, and draft pedigree expectation
Tag Archives: Rookie Wide Receivers
Dynasty Daily: Rashod Bateman and Elijah Moore Prospect Profiles
Prospect profiles of Rashod Bateman and Elijah Moore including tape reviews, metrics, athletic profiles, and draft pedigree expectation
Dynasty Daily: Seth Williams and Tylan Wallace Prospect Profiles
Prospect profiles of Seth Williams and Tylan Wallace including tape reviews, metrics, athletic profiles, and draft pedigree expectation
Dynasty Daily: Terrace Marshall and Kadarius Toney Prospect Profiles
Prospect profiles of Terrace Marshall and Kadarius Toney including tape reviews, metrics, athletic profiles, and draft pedigree expectation
Dynasty Daily: Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith Profiles
Prospect profiles of Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith including tape reviews, metrics, athletic profiles, and draft pedigree expectation
Dynasty Daily: Dyami Brown and Rondale Moore
A review of the prospect profiles of Dyami Brown and Rondale Moore
Rookie Drafts: Wide Receiver Breakout Age Pedigree Matrix
Perhaps the best statistic for predicting wide receiver success in the NFL is wide receiver breakout age. Breakout age is the age at which a player produces a given dominator rating.
Dominator rating is the percentage of receiving yards plus the percentage of receiving touchdowns divided by two. The percentage of receiving yards or receiving touchdowns a player produces is known as the market share.
Dominator Rating = (Market Share Receiving Yards+Market Share Receiving Touchdowns)/2
The premise is simple: wide receivers who have a higher dominator rating at a younger age tend to be better than those who produce lower dominators. Likewise, those wide receivers who breakout younger are better than those who breakout later.
Breakouts can be measured by different dominator ratings. The below chart includes the age a player first produces a 20% dominator rating along with the age a player first produces a 30% dominator rating. For those who produce 30% dominator rating, the percentile of their 30% breakout age is also included.
The remaining columns include the Expected Draft Position (EDP) from grindingthemocks.com. The final four columns show the base rate of producing a top 24 seasonal finish. Each player is assigned a base rate by the age of their first 20% breakout, and grouped by 18 and 19 year old breakouts, 20 years old or older breakouts, and no breakouts. The prior hit rate of players in a given round is shown in the given column.
The chart can be used to think about potential ranges of outcomes based on pedigree along with preparing to stack up your draft board.
Continue reading Rookie Drafts: Wide Receiver Breakout Age Pedigree Matrix
Dynasty Daily: RB-WR Grinding the Mocks Early April Data
A look at where the running backs and wide receivers are going in Grinding the Mocks data at the beginning of April.
Dynasty Daily: QB-TE Grinding the Mocks Early April Data
A look at where the quarterbacks and tight ends are going in Grinding the Mocks data at the beginning of April.
Dynasty Daily: Rookie WR Values to Monitor
Rookie wide receivers can have a quick fall off in value. This podcast breaks down critical second year WR values.
Dynasty Daily: 18 and 19 Year Old WR Breakouts
A look at wide receivers who broke out at 18 or 19 years old in college.
You can find Peter Howard’s database here: https://t.co/KGwBkUmeD2?amp=1
Dynasty Daily Rookie WR Hits, What they mean
A look at the career arc of rookie wide receiver hits in 2020