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Storylines to Watch: Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold on the experience cliff

With the off season in full effect, I’m highlighting a list of eight story lines I am watching in the off season.  One each day that draw on threads from The Analytics of Dynasty 2020 Edition.

Jones vs Darnold on the experience cliff

In the base rates chapter of the book, I dove into players who have yet to hit for a starter season.  Quarterbacks drafted in the top 10 of the NFL Draft who missed their first season hit 56% of the time.  That leaves a quarterback like Danel Jones with a good outlook.  Of those that missed in their first two years, their hit rate drops to 47%.  With an extra year of experience, the hit rate drops 9% but leaves him on a dangerous cliff.  Top 10 quarterbacks who miss three straight years only hit 11% of the time.  If Darnold misses this year, he is on a dangerous track, while Jones remains insulated for two more seasons.  In February ADP, Jones (13) and Darnold (15) were going very close in ADP, with Jones the more insulated player historically.

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