I’ve used breakout adjusted base rates to help me simplify my rookie draft process through the past couple of rookie drafts that has helped me simplify my rookie process.
To do this, I used a simple process. I bucket the wide receivers into either young breakouts (18-19 years old) and old breakouts (20 or older). I took the hit rate of the young and old breakouts (top 24 seasonal finishes) by the age they first hit a 20% dominator rating in college.
Then I use the Expected Draft Position over at Grindingthemocks.com to put a breakout adjusted base rate on the players. This blends two simple rules: players that go earlier in the draft have higher hit rates and players that performed better at a younger age in college have higher hit rates.
Below is a matrix showing the breakout adjusted hit rates of the wide receivers with expected draft positions in the first two days of the draft for the first and second rounds. Outside the top two rounds, I use an estimate of 20% for wide receivers selected in round three who broke out and 10% for those selected on day three.