Champion patron Laura had questions about her team build, so I went ahead and did a podcast reviewing the strategy.  

This podcast explains the tight end tiers, how they are organized, and some of the important features to consider.  You can find the tiers at the link here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11hrCwoL8Wdc0ip8-hDKIAmx934_G3ZgdnsP8wnveAI0/edit?usp=sharing

The Tight End and Quarterback tiers are out, and the tight ends have drawn some questions.  

The base rates aren’t a prediction of odds to hit.  They are simply a comparison to players of the same pedigree and production.   For players who have not produced a top 12 season, they are the rates used in the base rates chapter of the book.   For players that produced a top 12 season, they use the rates from the density chapter.  It is notable that players with a top 12 season see a good shift in future odds.  

The base rates are valuable at the middle of the spectrum of tight ends.  Notable outliers, like George Kittle (0%) and Richard Rodgers (83%) are a good example of the limitations of the analysis at the extremes.  The use of base rates is better in the middle of the distribution, with players like Tyler Higbee (40%), Mike Gesicki (67%), and David Njoku (81%) major beneficiaries of hitting for a top 12 season.  Notable players who have not hit and have hit rate questions with O.J. Howard (50%), Jonnu Smith(4%), and Gerald Everett (7%) with Smith and Everett picks that are higher in ADP than their base rates warrant.  

Derrius Guice, Kerryon Johnson, and Ronald Jones were all 2nd round running backs in the 2017 draft class.  To date, none have hit for a top 24 season, and have lower base rates than you might expect.  

What is your primary focus right now for your dynasty leagues?

A podcast on the NFC North contract situations, draft picks, cap situations, and relevant dynasty players.  

This is a podcast reaction to the January RB ADP at DLF.  You can find the ADP at  https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/adp/dynasty-adp.php?mo=1&year=2020&pos=RB 

This podcast focuses on the NFC East Contracts.  

I bought my wife’s engagement ring on a Saturday. I took the ring to my car, hid it in the trunk with the intent to bring it home, hide it, and propose to her on a trip we were taking the upcoming Thursday. On the way home, I stopped an hit golf balls while she was working. After a couple hours, I went home, hid the ring in my safe under my bed, and made dinner before she came home. When she came home, I was terrified. I was worried about her finding a receipt, or the gift bag from the jewelers. I was worried she knew where the safe was and would go in there for some reason and find the ring. The four hours I owned the ring were pure torture. After we ate dinner, we sat on the couch and watched Dateline. The ring was burning a hole in my pocket despite being hidden in a safe. I decided to scrap my plans, walk to the safe, get the ring, and proposed right there on the couch in sweatpants, while watching Dateline on the couch. 

I don’t deal well with holding onto big items. I need to share them with people and friends. I finished The Analytics of Dynasty 2020 Edition a couple minutes ago and I want to share it before it goes on sale Saturday. Let’s keep it under wraps, but feel free to make trades based on the information in here. 

Thanks for your support and being an Analytics of Dynasty Patron. Enjoy the book. 

A podcast on the contract situations for the AFC West. 

This is a reaction to the January QB ADP at DLF. 

I share some details from the writer’s room on a trade not executed that created a trade opportunity in a different league.  

What topic from The Analytics of Dynasty 2020 would you want an in depth podcast on?

Here is the Superflex chapter of The Analytics of Dynasty 2020 Edition.  I hope you get value out of this, read it this weekend, and get good deals done this week before others get access to the book.  

Here is a podcast of the contract situations in the AFC South.  

The poll on a deep dive topic from the Analytics of Dynasty 2020 Edition requested a focus on Density.  Here is the podcast!

I updated the QB tiers post draft

This podcast continues a look at the contracts of all teams in the NFL.  This episode looks at the AFC North.  

I’ve included a link to the quarterback tiers below.  The tiers are meant to identify players as asset types.  This helps you identify values on draft board based on the tier they fall in.  The tiers are not ranked with order of preference.  For example, you can like a quarterback over 30 more than a quarterback under 30 given they both produced a top 6 season.  I appreciate any feedback on your experiences with the tiers, I’m open to different ways to make them useful.  

QB Tiers:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-BCy1I-nstvdrmBJ8vc0Gxp20zNZ8FCcqtEr-zKRHWQ/edit?usp=sharing

Here is a podcast on the dynasty steps you should be taking in January.