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10 Days Left to Pre-Order The Analytics of Dynasty!

There are only 10 days left to pre-order The Analytics of Dynasty my upcoming ebook on dynasty football targeted at giving you a true edge in your leagues.

If you preorder for $25 on or before September 1st, you will get The Analytics of Dynasty when it is released in January and a one-on-one strategy session. The strategy session will cover team building, roster construction, and trading tips based on the research from the book. By ordering early, you will get a sneak peak of the data to use against your opponents before the book is released in January.

Some of the topics in the book include:

  1. Better startup decision making
  2. Optimized rookie draft strategies
  3. How to value future picks in trades
  4. How to hit on your picks at a higher rate.

Some of the research for the book is contrary to common narratives and can provide you with a way to exploit biases in drafts and trades.

I have detailed some of the findings from my research at analyticsofdynasty.com including

  1. How the “Boom Bust” narrative about Brandin Cooks is demonstrably false;
  2. Why Kalen Ballage is a must selection in the second round of rookie drafts;
  3. How truly rare Arian Foster was as a running back.

Make sure to pre-order on or before September 1st to lock in the $25 price and a strategy session!

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The Facts About Brandin Cooks are Contrarian and Why Narratives Suck

Some of the things that get accepted as true in fantasy football are mind-numbing. The fact that Brandin Cooks is a “boom bust WR” is one of them.

The Narrative

My inspiration for writing The Analytics of Dynasty was discovering through my research that some of the narratives in dynasty strategy are simply not true.  These are things that get said, repeated, regurgitated, become gospel and accepted as true. When these types of narratives are wrong, they become profitable areas for good dynasty owners to exploit.

The “boom bust” label on Brandin Cooks is a common narrative. The analysis of Cooks based on the narrative sounds something like “He is small, doesn’t see consistent targets, and is reliant on big plays.” As a result, the narrative says he is a highly variant from week to week. The narrative would say Cooks might have 5 or 6 big weeks, while the others are not useful and you cannot predict when they come.

I posted the poll below on my Twitter account, and it confirmed the narrative has seeped into the dynasty conscious as 62% of the respondents said they considered Brandin Cooks a “boom bust WR.”

The problem: it just simply isn’t true.

Brandin Cooks

Since 2015, Cooks has finished 13th, 11th, and 15th at the receiver position. Only 5 WRs have finished 15th or better in the past three seasons

  • Julio Jones
  • Antonio Brown
  • Jarvis Landry
  • Larry Fitzgerald
  • Doug Baldwin

The narrative would says, “Fine, he finishes that high, but his production is in only a few weeks, and he has a lot of bust weeks!”

During that time, Cooks has finished with 26 starter (top 24) weeks or 54% of the time. In other words, he booms more than busts.

Julio Jones and Antonio Brown, two receivers who finished no worse than 7th in any season in the past three years, finished with the high at the position with 33.

Narrative: “See, he finishes with 2.3 fewer starter weeks per season than the elite guys!”

Since 2015, Cooks ranks 8th among WRs in starter weeks, behind only Jones, Brown, Hopkins, Demaryius Thomas, Landry, Mike Evans, and  Fitzgerald.  Cooks only finished two starter weeks behind “Mr. High Floor” Larry Fitzgerald.

Interestingly, over the past two seasons, Cooks finished with 19 starter weeks, 1 more than Larry Fitzgerald (18).

Over the past three years, Cooks has outpaced other “high floor” players like A.J. Green (25), Doug Baldwin (23) and Golden Tate (19).  Cooks is one of just 10 WRs who has been more likely than not to finish with as a starter in a given week over the past three seasons.

Maybe we should start calling him “More Boom than Bust.” But with the easy bailout of a narrative, it seems unlikely to take hold.

Takeaway

There are inefficiencies and edges in the dynasty marketplace and perceived value is a powerful one. Specifically, Brandin Cooks is likely undervalued in your dynasty league because he is “boom bust.”

In my research for the book, I found a lot of these gospel ideas just are not supported by facts. I could keep exposing them here, but then I would give away your edge. If you want a true edge on your opponents, pre-order The Analytics of Dynasty. If you pre-order before September 1st, for only $25 you will get the book when it comes out in January and get a one-on-one strategy session where we can chat about more inefficiencies.

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My Appearance on the UTH Weekly Show

I pinch hit for Katie and Tim on the UTH weekly show this week. Chad and I get geeky weekly on the premium side, but this is only my third weekly show appearance.

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/dynasty-fantasy-football-under-the-helmet/id606186284?mt=2

Thanks Chad for having me on. We talked about news, notes, potential league winners, and The Analytics of Dynasty! Pre-order now for $25 and get a one-on-one strategy session with an advanced view of the analytics!