I jumped on Youtube to do some discussions and overview of The Analytics of Dynasty. You can find the link below
All posts by Jordan McNamara
Analytics of Dynasty: Perfect Offseason Gift
With championship week 16 upon us, the offseason is only hours away. Now is the perfect time to get an edge in offseason trades, rookie drafts, and startups, by ordering The Analytics of Dynasty.
The Analytics of Dynasty covers a decade of statistical, ADP, efficiency, and production data that will help you make better dynasty decisions. There is a full range of dynasty league topics, including:
- Startup draft strategy
- Rookie draft strategy
- Trade strategy
- Player selection
- Roster construction
There are also new metrics and strategies that measure a player’s impact on a dynasty team’s success, including
- Wins Over Replacement Player (WORP)
- Adjusted Wins Over Replacement Player (aWORP)
- Rule of 7
- Rule of 97
The book also provides studies of a variety of topics and comes to conclusions that are contrarian to several mainstream beliefs on topics, including
- Positional efficiency
- Positional hit rates
- Rookie draft hit rates
- Optimal player selection
I hear some of these narratives every week on podcasts and read them in writing. With The Analytics of Dynasty, you will be able to exploit them in drafts and trades. The book will help you make more efficient and winning dynasty rosters.
There are two options to buy
The Analytics of Dynasty will be released in PDF form in late January. Have a startup draft before then? Let me know and I’ll get you some advanced strategy points.
Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and good luck in your championship games!
Kareem Hunt Update (Video)
I did a quick YouTube Live last night on the legal aspects and dynasty value of the Kareem Hunt situation.
There is a link here: http://youtu.be/1x2_8orsjVU?a
Fat Tails: The Impact of James Conner
Through week 9 of the NFL season, James Conner has 206.5 PPR points and is currently the RB3. The impact of that has been massive both this season and historically.
James Conner’s Profile
James Conner’s profile was interesting when he was drafted. There were a lot of signs for high-level potential when he was drafted by the Steelers:
- Prototypically sized (6’1″ 233lbs)
- College career with workhorse workload
- Good offense
- Day 2 pick (105th)
Just by draft pedigree alone, he would project as an early 2nd (Picks 13-18) round rookie pick where the average RB is the 107th pick in the NFL Draft.
Why Season Long Finishes Are Terrible Metrics
James Conner has 136 PPR points this season. That total would have been good for RB36 in 2017. That is a pretty good pace through 6 weeks, especially for a player thought to be a backup in season.
An RB36 season long finish in 2017 would have put Conner behind Tarik Cohen, Isaiah Crowell, Jamaal Williams and Jay Ajayi, but ahead of Orleans Darkwa, Derrick Henry, and Rex Burkhead.
If you came into the season knowing you would get a RB36 season out of Conner would you have been satisfied with season?
Asking the Right Questions
Asking about James Conner’s final season standing is terrible process. If you read or hear someone discussing Conner in the offseason saying, “yeah, but he only finished as RB 20-something” read something else or turn the channel.
The right question to ask about players, especially players like James Conner is how many wins do they add to your team? For Conner in 2018, he has added .94 wins over replacement player (WORP). Only four RBs have produced more through week 6, Gurley, Gordon, Kamara and Barkley.
WORP is a metric similar to WAR, or Wins Above Replacement, in baseball. Simply put, WORP represents how many wins a player adds above a replacement level substitute player. For the purposes of my stats, I measure WORP from weeks 1 through 13, and the replacement player is a set weekly finisher. (There is some decision making that goes into those numbers which I delve into in detail in the book.)
WORP gets to what really matters in fantasy football: winning.
Final season standings are a terrible metric to measure player, because every point counts the same. Except every point should not count the same in season value calculation.
For example: Would you rather take a Player A who scores 100 points in 5 weeks or Player B who score 100 points in 10 weeks?
Player A is only usable for a short time frame, but has a high ceiling. On the flip side, Player B is widely usable scoring a solid floor of 10 points per game.
The answer is clear: Player A. Player A has made a signficant impact in a 5 week timespan that likely has your team with a winning record. Through that period Player A has likely added you about .4 regular season wins.
Those who answer Player B are missing the significant boom weeks, and the benefit of knowing when not to play Player A. They are also starting a below replacement level player with about -.3 WORP.
In the 5 other weeks player A is not playing, in a worst case scenario, you start a player who averages 7 points. Instead of Player A scoring 100 points through 5 weeks, he and the replacement player score 135 points, a 35% increase over player B. Through my research that is a low estimate for a replacement player. Instead you can expect closer to 12-13 points, especially with the proper teambuild.
Where a player has a concentrated level of production through 6 weeks like Conner, he has an immense impact on your team. Consider, of the RBs around RB36 finished last season, Burkhead (RB39) was the best with .42 WORP, while higher seasonal finisher Jamaal Williams (34) produced -.04 WORP. If James Conner retired tomorrow, he would have more than twice as much of an impact than Burkhead in 2017, despite playing only 6 games to Burkhead’s 10.
With the narrative that Le’Veon Bell is likely to come back in week 8, James Conner’s lead role looks to be closing for the time being. That presumes Bell is coming back, plays week 8, plays well, and does not get hurt. That is a lot of presumptions in an uncertain scenario. Being bullish on Conner is a good play given every risk factor points in his favor. In a worst case scenario, where Conner gets hurt and misses the rest of the season he’s still no worst than a 4th round startup pick when Bell leaves in free agency. At best, Conner is a 2nd round startup pick.
With his difference making impact, you cannot sell him low, and should instead look to buy him. For comparison, no RB in the 2019 class can approach Conner’s value.
Any points that you lose from Conner not playing in games this season can be replaced by Theo Riddick-types, trades, or other developments from backup RBs.
Takeaway
The narratives and talking points in dynasty football are easy to exploit if we look at them differently than the consensus. WORP is a great example. Loading up on “Conner type” RBs has a massive upside. It’s also highly efficient and practical inseason.
My work for the book is looking a lot at WORP right now. Looking for what WORP is like in startup drafts, rookie drafts, and positionally is a highly exploitable and something unique you will find in my book. The Conner example is a classic one and is an example of the efficiencies found in my research.
If you have questions, feel free to let me know on twitter @mcnamaradynasty
_____
https://analyticsofdynasty.com/product/the-analytics-of-dynasty-with-strategy-session/
5 Hours Left to Pre-Order The Analytics of Dynasty for $25
Tonight is your last chance to pre-order The Analytics of Dynasty for $25.
The pre-order will get you the book when it comes out in January and a one-on-one strategy session.
The book has a lot of content including:
1. Startup hit rates
2. Rookie-Veteran value trade chart
3. Positional scoring history
4. Why drafting a lot of wide receivers is a bad strategy
5. Draft and trade tips to give you an edge
The content will give you an edge over your fellow owners that you can use to improve your teams in your dynasty leagues.
Do not miss out, pre-order tonight by 1159PM before the pre-order offer expires.
Deadline tonight: Hours Left to Pre-Order for $25
Today is the final day of my pre-order offer: If you pre-order The Analytics of Dynasty by midnight tonight, you will get the book for $25 and a one-on-one strategy session.
The strategy session will cover team building, roster construction, and trading tips based on the research from the book. By ordering early, you will get a sneak peak of the data to use against your opponents before the book is released in January.
Some of the topics in the book include:
- Better startup decision making
- Optimized rookie draft strategies
- How to value future picks in trades
- How to hit on your picks at a higher rate.
Some of the research for the book is contrary to common narratives and can provide you a way to exploit biases in drafts and trades.
I have detailed some of the findings from my research at including
- How the “Boom Bust” narrative about Brandin Cooks is demonstrably false;
- Why Kalen Ballage is a must selection in the second round of rookie drafts;
- How truly rare Arian Foster was as a running back.
Make sure to pre-order today to lock in the pre-order price of $25 and a one-on-one strategy session. You only have hours left!
One Week Left to Pre-Order for $25
There is only one week left to pre-order The Analytics of Dynasty my upcoming ebook on dynasty football targeted at giving you a true edge in your leagues.
If you preorder for $25 on or before September 1st, you will get The Analytics of Dynasty when it is released in January and a one-on-one strategy session. The strategy session will cover team building, roster construction, and trading tips based on the research from the book. By ordering early, you will get a sneak peak of the data to use against your opponents before the book is released in January.
Some of the topics in the book include:
- Better startup decision making
- Optimized rookie draft strategies
- How to value future picks in trades
- How to hit on your picks at a higher rate.
Some of the research for the book is contrary to common narratives and can provide you a way to exploit biases in drafts and trades.
I have detailed some of the findings from my research at including
- How the “Boom Bust” narrative about Brandin Cooks is demonstrably false;
- Why Kalen Ballage is a must selection in the second round of rookie drafts;
- How truly rare Arian Foster was as a running back.
Make sure to pre-order on or before September 1st to lock in the $25 price and a strategy session!
10 Days Left to Pre-Order The Analytics of Dynasty!
There are only 10 days left to pre-order The Analytics of Dynasty my upcoming ebook on dynasty football targeted at giving you a true edge in your leagues.
If you preorder for $25 on or before September 1st, you will get The Analytics of Dynasty when it is released in January and a one-on-one strategy session. The strategy session will cover team building, roster construction, and trading tips based on the research from the book. By ordering early, you will get a sneak peak of the data to use against your opponents before the book is released in January.
Some of the topics in the book include:
- Better startup decision making
- Optimized rookie draft strategies
- How to value future picks in trades
- How to hit on your picks at a higher rate.
Some of the research for the book is contrary to common narratives and can provide you with a way to exploit biases in drafts and trades.
I have detailed some of the findings from my research at analyticsofdynasty.com including
- How the “Boom Bust” narrative about Brandin Cooks is demonstrably false;
- Why Kalen Ballage is a must selection in the second round of rookie drafts;
- How truly rare Arian Foster was as a running back.
Make sure to pre-order on or before September 1st to lock in the $25 price and a strategy session!
My Appearance on All In
- I joined Chris Whitman for a strategy session on his All In podcast. Give it a listen https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-wzudu-97a584
My appearance on Dynasty Trades HQ
Here’s the link to a recent podcast I did with Dynasty Trades HQ.
https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/dynastytradeshq-podcast/id1327121536?mt=2
The Facts About Brandin Cooks are Contrarian and Why Narratives Suck
Some of the things that get accepted as true in fantasy football are mind-numbing. The fact that Brandin Cooks is a “boom bust WR” is one of them.
The Narrative
My inspiration for writing The Analytics of Dynasty was discovering through my research that some of the narratives in dynasty strategy are simply not true. These are things that get said, repeated, regurgitated, become gospel and accepted as true. When these types of narratives are wrong, they become profitable areas for good dynasty owners to exploit.
The “boom bust” label on Brandin Cooks is a common narrative. The analysis of Cooks based on the narrative sounds something like “He is small, doesn’t see consistent targets, and is reliant on big plays.” As a result, the narrative says he is a highly variant from week to week. The narrative would say Cooks might have 5 or 6 big weeks, while the others are not useful and you cannot predict when they come.
I posted the poll below on my Twitter account, and it confirmed the narrative has seeped into the dynasty conscious as 62% of the respondents said they considered Brandin Cooks a “boom bust WR.”
Do you consider Brandin Cooks a “boom bust WR”? @DynastyTradesHQ @MyFantasyLeague
— Jordan McNamara (@McNamaraDynasty) August 18, 2018
The problem: it just simply isn’t true.
Brandin Cooks
Since 2015, Cooks has finished 13th, 11th, and 15th at the receiver position. Only 5 WRs have finished 15th or better in the past three seasons
- Julio Jones
- Antonio Brown
- Jarvis Landry
- Larry Fitzgerald
- Doug Baldwin
The narrative would says, “Fine, he finishes that high, but his production is in only a few weeks, and he has a lot of bust weeks!”
During that time, Cooks has finished with 26 starter (top 24) weeks or 54% of the time. In other words, he booms more than busts.
Julio Jones and Antonio Brown, two receivers who finished no worse than 7th in any season in the past three years, finished with the high at the position with 33.
Narrative: “See, he finishes with 2.3 fewer starter weeks per season than the elite guys!”
Since 2015, Cooks ranks 8th among WRs in starter weeks, behind only Jones, Brown, Hopkins, Demaryius Thomas, Landry, Mike Evans, and Fitzgerald. Cooks only finished two starter weeks behind “Mr. High Floor” Larry Fitzgerald.
Interestingly, over the past two seasons, Cooks finished with 19 starter weeks, 1 more than Larry Fitzgerald (18).
Over the past three years, Cooks has outpaced other “high floor” players like A.J. Green (25), Doug Baldwin (23) and Golden Tate (19). Cooks is one of just 10 WRs who has been more likely than not to finish with as a starter in a given week over the past three seasons.
Maybe we should start calling him “More Boom than Bust.” But with the easy bailout of a narrative, it seems unlikely to take hold.
Takeaway
There are inefficiencies and edges in the dynasty marketplace and perceived value is a powerful one. Specifically, Brandin Cooks is likely undervalued in your dynasty league because he is “boom bust.”
In my research for the book, I found a lot of these gospel ideas just are not supported by facts. I could keep exposing them here, but then I would give away your edge. If you want a true edge on your opponents, pre-order The Analytics of Dynasty. If you pre-order before September 1st, for only $25 you will get the book when it comes out in January and get a one-on-one strategy session where we can chat about more inefficiencies.
My Appearance on the UTH Weekly Show
I pinch hit for Katie and Tim on the UTH weekly show this week. Chad and I get geeky weekly on the premium side, but this is only my third weekly show appearance.
https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/dynasty-fantasy-football-under-the-helmet/id606186284?mt=2
Thanks Chad for having me on. We talked about news, notes, potential league winners, and The Analytics of Dynasty! Pre-order now for $25 and get a one-on-one strategy session with an advanced view of the analytics!
My Appearance on Dynasty Happy Hour
Thanks to Tyler and Tim over at DHH for having me on their podcast. Check out the link below to hear the appearance.
We talk about the book and some of our most owned players, so check it out.
———
Pre-order The Analytics of Dynasty before September 1st and you’ll get a one-on-one strategy session to talk Dynasty and get an advance preview of the analytics.
My Appearance on The Dynasty Life
Thanks to Travis, Andrew and Justin for having me on The Dynasty Life. Check out the podcast at http://www.thefantasyauthority.com/podcast/2018-training-camp-battles-episode-94/.
Go ahead an pre-order The Analytics of Dynasty today and get a one-on-one strategy session with some of the advanced analytics to get a leg up on your competition in 2018.
Structural Drafting: Kalen Ballage is a Cheat Code
Rookie drafts are a key area to acquire RB depth in dynasty. One of the findings as I go along writing The Analytics of Dynasty is finding clear target areas for players. For example, round 1 NFL QBs and day 2 NFL TEs in round 3 of rookie drafts are great ways to fill in players while fading the start one positions in startup drafts.
Another area is RB. RB should be clear targets in the first two rounds of rookie drafts outside a select few WRs.
This year, my rookie draft plan after the top 8 RBs (including RoJo), was Christian Kirk, Courtland Sutton, James Washington, and then Kalen Ballage. Ballage is a player to sit dead red on in the middle of the second round because of the athletic upside and receiving ability in a 228-pound frame.
In chatting with a book purchaser earlier this week, I noticed a historic trend. The historical hit rate of producing a starter (top 24 finish) for RBs in the second round of rookie drafts is 35%.
Since 2013, there have been 10 RBs who weigh 215 pounds or more, drafted in rookie drafts between picks 13 and 24 in rookie drafts: Terrance West, Jeremy Hill, Zac Stacy, Christine Michael, Jay Ajayi, Jordan Howard, David Johnson, David Cobb, Andre Williams and D’Onta Foreman.
Of those 10, 6 produced top 24 seasons, West, Hill, Stacy, Ajayi, Howard and Johnson. Cobb and Williams were athletic duds, Foreman is only in his second year, while Christine Michael rose to a sixth-round startup pick in 2014, a clear value upgrade over his rookie valuation.
This 60% hit is significantly better than the market, and if you exclude poor athletes in Williams and Cobb, your 75% top 24 rate is double the market success rate.
The upside is good as 5 of the RBs produced top 12 seasons, while David Johnson was a league winner in 2016.
That is a good success rate at any point in the draft, but especially so in the second round of rookie drafts.
Much of the narrative around dynasty drafts is focused on debating which two players to pick at a given spot in the draft. This approach is like a general drawing a battle plan: the general can make the best tactical plan imaginable, but if he is fighting the battle in Russia in the winter, he is going to lose the war.
Instead of debating specific players, take a step back, identify a strong strategy, and ask yourself which players best reflect that strategy.
This year Kalen Ballage is a later second-round draft pick, who fits the criteria of this highly successful type of players. At nearly all points of rookie drafts RBs are better bets than WRs, and with the historic success rates in the range, Kalen Ballage reflects a strong strategic approach in the second round of rookie drafts.
Pre-order The Analtyics of Dynasty before September 1st and you will get a one-on-one strategy session including an advance preview of the strategy and tips from the book.
Appearance on The Open Bar
I was invited to join JMic on TheFakepigSkin.com’s Open Bar and we had some fun. Lots of Dynasty talk, check it out: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/fakepigskin-com-open-bar/id1337507057?mt=2.
Hitting from Deep in Startup Drafts at RB
Since 2008, there have been 612 RBs with yearly startup ADPs between rounds 11 and 20. Only 1 has hit as a top 6 running back twice in the three years after he was selected in that range: Arian Foster in 2009.
Foster finished as RB1 in Y2 and RB3 in Y3 and then continued into Y4 as RB3 and Y6 as RB6 before fading off (Y5 was an injury-filled season). His production of 4 top 6 finishes at the RB position would be high for an elite pick but is unmatched deep in startup drafts.
Below is a chart that you might find useful in startup drafts, and is a preview of The Analytics of Dynasty. The chart is organized by rounds from left to right, and show the rate of RBs producing top 6 finishes by year after their selection in that round of startup drafts. There is a steep drop off outside of round 3 in Y1, while there are opportunities to hit in the mid rounds, largely with younger players, beyond Y1. A common debate in the dynasty is the value of youth, but the value of longevity is notable in the mid rounds, where younger backs progress to match far earlier rounds in Y3.
As the research of The Analytics of Dynasty continues, this is a conclusion that finds continuous support. Pre-order The Analytics of Dynasty and you can chat with me about this and much more in a one-on-one strategy session before the start of the 2018 season.
Flashback: Rob Gronkowski’s Dominant 2011 Season
I’ll use this space to keep you updated on some of the fun of this journey. Looking through some data tonight, and Rob Gronkowski’s 2011 is worth a shoutout.
Rob Gronkowski scored 324.7 points in 2011, with 90 receptions, 1327 yards and 17 touchdowns. He was dominant throughout the season, fininshing as the top TE 6 weeks out of the year, and a top 3 TE scoring week 9 times.
By way of reference, since 2008, Jason Witten is the next highest top TE weeks with 5 in 2010.
In 2017, no TE had more than 1 top TE week, and the last time a TE had more than 2 top TE weeks, was Jordan Reed in 2015.
Jimmy Graham finished second in TE scoring in 2011, with 296 points. This finish ranks third since 2008, finishing only behind Gronkowski in 2011 and Graham’s 2013 (303.5 points). Gronkowski’s 2011 was more than 2 PPG better than Graham’s season.
While The Analytics of Dynasty is a primarily a dynasty book, there are other broader takeaways from the data. This is a good example, where paying up for a TE in DFS has been no guarantee the past two years.
What You Will Get From The Analytics of Dynasty
The Analytics of Dynasty is designed to make you a better dynasty player. The book is a deep dive into statistical, production, and market research in dynasty football from 2008 through 2017. The information in the book will allow you to make better strategic decisions in startup drafts, rookie drafts, and trades.
A lot of the advice on the open market is tactical advice.
“Should I trade player A and B for player C and D?”
“You should take player X at 1.03 in a rookie draft.”
“Player Z is a good value in round 6 of a startup.”
That type of advice is nice but does not move the needle much for your dynasty win rate.
The type of analysis in this book will.
The book will focus on some of the following topics:
- How to exploit a player’s age.
- How much does NFL draft position matter for rookies?
- The type of production you should strive for with a pick in a draft.
- How to value rookies versus veterans.
- Startup draft strategies that beat ADP.
- The single most important thing that can increase your likelihood of winning a championship.
- How win-now startup draft strategies go wrong and how to fix them.
- The Rule of 7
This is just a preview of some of the topics in The Analytics of Dynasty that will increase the likelihood of winning a dynasty league.