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5 Post Draft Tips

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I’ve sent this update along to AOD purchasers.  It includes a lot of the stuff we’ve been talking about but I don’t want you to be left out.  

 

1. CEH Value Movement

There have been some massive player movements based on the NFL Draft. Perhaps the most consequential? Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Pre-draft, he was being selected at 63.1 in RDP. Add in a first round selection to an Andy Reid led offense? His RDP is now 19.24 in startup drafts, tied with Josh Jacobs in post NFL draft startup drafts. 

2. Top 5 Rookie RB Movement

How did the other top four rookies fare? Cam Akers rose 11.5 spots to 35.5, J.K. Dobbin rose 9.5 spots to 31.7, while D’Andre Swift fell 3.9 spots to 32.35.  Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor fell .2 spots, to 18.7. What was true before the draft remains true after the draft: Jonathan Taylor is the top rookie in startup drafts.

3. Joe Burrow is top SF Rookie

While Jonathan Taylor is the top rookie in Superflex startup drafts, Joe Burrow is the top in rookie drafts at 1.6. He has gone 1.01 in 67.5% of the drafts I’ve tracked. Notably, while Jonathan Taylor (2.41) is ahead of Clyde Edwards-Helaire (2.72), Edwards-Helaire has been selected at 1.01 21.5% of drafts compared to only 12.8% for Taylor. Essentially, Taylor is sitting at 1.02, with Edwards-Helaire more variant between 1.01 and 1.03. Burrow consistently went in the top of mock drafts prior to the NFL Draft while consistently going as the third rookie in startup drafts. That has held true post NFL draft. The only explanation is owners drafting for need. If you like Burrow, select him in a startup and pass on the cost at 1.01 in a Superflex draft. Have a need at quarterback at the 1.01? Address the position in a different way. The 2020 Edition of The Analytics of Dynasty has key metrics for you to look for. 

4. The Top Tier

The top tier in the draft is Joe Burrow (1.6), Tua Tugavoilova (4.3), Taylor (2.4), Edwards-Helaire (4.3), D’Andre Swift (5.9), J.K. Dobbins (5.4), and Cam Akers (7.3). While there is a tier of 7, the break line is not always at 1.07. Of those seven players at least, one is available at 1.08 in a Superflex draft 67.5% of the time. The real tier break is at 9, where only 20% of the time one of the top 7 players is available. This makes 1.08 a sneaky spot to trade into if the owner thinks it is unlikely they are getting a top 7 player. 

5. Rob Gronkowski 

Rob Gronkowski shook up dynasty leagues by returning to the NFL after a trade to Tampa Bay to reunite with Tom Brady. Gronkowski is up to TE13 for the offseason, but is trending higher. Since the NFL draft, Gronkowski has been selected at 109.4.