This podcast features Champion Patron Carlo breaking down his work on the startup draft pick value calculator which is available to Dynasty and Champion Patrons.  

Would you use a WORP tracker during the season?

Are you doing a startup before the NFL season?

930PM ET. Check back for link!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vn55372minQ

8.30.20

I’ve updated my RB tiers and have this podcast to detail them

A wild trade in multiple parts

I’ve sent this update along to AOD purchasers.  It includes a lot of the stuff we’ve been talking about but I don’t want you to be left out.  

1. CEH Value Movement

There have been some massive player movements based on the NFL Draft. Perhaps the most consequential? Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Pre-draft, he was being selected at 63.1 in RDP. Add in a first round selection to an Andy Reid led offense? His RDP is now 19.24 in startup drafts, tied with Josh Jacobs in post NFL draft startup drafts. 

2. Top 5 Rookie RB Movement

How did the other top four rookies fare? Cam Akers rose 11.5 spots to 35.5, J.K. Dobbin rose 9.5 spots to 31.7, while D’Andre Swift fell 3.9 spots to 32.35.  Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor fell .2 spots, to 18.7. What was true before the draft remains true after the draft: Jonathan Taylor is the top rookie in startup drafts.

3. Joe Burrow is top SF Rookie

While Jonathan Taylor is the top rookie in Superflex startup drafts, Joe Burrow is the top in rookie drafts at 1.6. He has gone 1.01 in 67.5% of the drafts I’ve tracked. Notably, while Jonathan Taylor (2.41) is ahead of Clyde Edwards-Helaire (2.72), Edwards-Helaire has been selected at 1.01 21.5% of drafts compared to only 12.8% for Taylor. Essentially, Taylor is sitting at 1.02, with Edwards-Helaire more variant between 1.01 and 1.03. Burrow consistently went in the top of mock drafts prior to the NFL Draft while consistently going as the third rookie in startup drafts. That has held true post NFL draft. The only explanation is owners drafting for need. If you like Burrow, select him in a startup and pass on the cost at 1.01 in a Superflex draft. Have a need at quarterback at the 1.01? Address the position in a different way. The 2020 Edition of The Analytics of Dynasty has key metrics for you to look for. 

4. The Top Tier

The top tier in the draft is Joe Burrow (1.6), Tua Tugavoilova (4.3), Taylor (2.4), Edwards-Helaire (4.3), D’Andre Swift (5.9), J.K. Dobbins (5.4), and Cam Akers (7.3). While there is a tier of 7, the break line is not always at 1.07. Of those seven players at least, one is available at 1.08 in a Superflex draft 67.5% of the time. The real tier break is at 9, where only 20% of the time one of the top 7 players is available. This makes 1.08 a sneaky spot to trade into if the owner thinks it is unlikely they are getting a top 7 player. 

5. Rob Gronkowski 

Rob Gronkowski shook up dynasty leagues by returning to the NFL after a trade to Tampa Bay to reunite with Tom Brady. Gronkowski is up to TE13 for the offseason, but is trending higher. Since the NFL draft, Gronkowski has been selected at 109.4. 

The 5.3.20 Patron show

Here are some trade values in the AFC post draft. 

AFC trade values post draft part 2

A breakdown of ADP to find potential buy candidates

Here is some risers in value from pre to post NFL draft.  

Here is some trade targets ideas for your leagues.  

Here is the link to your 2020 Rookie Board.   

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12DIqPKuz5suMVh5tSdGMWZCO9vOkcTrhwLACBcKltTA/edit?usp=sharing 

Here is the link to the show:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7r2fYPPthg 

Some trades post NFL draft to guide your process.  

I’ve built a live tracker for draft position in rookie superflex drafts.  There is not specific consistency between leagues, but they are superflex rookie drafts.  I’m still looking for more leagues to track, and by next week I’ll have dozens and dozens of leagues.   Enjoy!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1U1AiUbtHcIO11BmmBl4YfHHjVJ0yxQR8fBEl_OY2BVw/edit?usp=sharing 

With more data trickling in, there are key spots to understand in drafts.