The Tight End and Quarterback tiers are out, and the tight ends have drawn some questions.
The base rates aren’t a prediction of odds to hit. They are simply a comparison to players of the same pedigree and production. For players who have not produced a top 12 season, they are the rates used in the base rates chapter of the book. For players that produced a top 12 season, they use the rates from the density chapter. It is notable that players with a top 12 season see a good shift in future odds.
The base rates are valuable at the middle of the spectrum of tight ends. Notable outliers, like George Kittle (0%) and Richard Rodgers (83%) are a good example of the limitations of the analysis at the extremes. The use of base rates is better in the middle of the distribution, with players like Tyler Higbee (40%), Mike Gesicki (67%), and David Njoku (81%) major beneficiaries of hitting for a top 12 season. Notable players who have not hit and have hit rate questions with O.J. Howard (50%), Jonnu Smith(4%), and Gerald Everett (7%) with Smith and Everett picks that are higher in ADP than their base rates warrant.