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Storylines to Watch: TE Value in 2020 Drafts

With the off season in full effect, I’m highlighting a list of eight story lines I am watching in the off season.  One each day that draw on threads from The Analytics of Dynasty 2020 Edition.

Tight End May Have Value This Year

The tight end position was largely valueless in terms of depressed pedigree last year.  This year, O.J. Howard (TE14 in February ADP) and David Njoku (TE16) are at crossroads of their career.  Both seem like misfits on their team, but represent strong profiles as first round tight ends.  The differences in their resumes are notable.  First round tight ends with three years of experience and no top 12 finishes like Howard, hit 50% of the time for a top 12 seasonal finish.  On the other hand, first round tight ends with a top 12 seasonal finish like Njoku, hit 81% of the time for another top 12 seasonal finish.  Add in the Austin Hooper (TE6) and Hunter Henry (TE8) who are free agents with late risers in 2019 in the form of Mike Gisecki (TE13) and Tyler Higbee (TE12), and you have major tight end value fluctuation.

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Storylines to Watch: Dak vs Lamar

With the off season in full effect, I’m highlighting a list of eight story lines I am watching in the off season.  One each day that draw on threads from The Analytics of Dynasty 2020 Edition.

Value Spread Between Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson’s 2019 was a massive QB1 finish.  He is certainly inside the line of top 6 QB finishers who project to long-term success (see the Superflex chapter!), but he was supported by an unrealistic 8.9% touchdown rate and historic rushing output.  Prescott, on the other hand, who finished as QB2 had a more realistic 5% touchdown rate on the NFL’s top offense in total yardage.  Jackson is going at QB2 while Prescott is going at QB5 in February ADP and is a dark horse candidate for QB1 in 2020.

 

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Storylines to Watch: Quarterback in Flux

With the off season in full effect, I’m highlighting a list of eight story lines I am watching in the off season.  One each day that draw on threads from The Analytics of Dynasty 2020 Edition.

Quarterbacks in Flux

There is a potential for massive movement in the free-agent market at quarterback.  Dak Prescott and Jameis Winston are still firmly in their prime window coming off strong seasons.  Marcus Mariota, Teddy Bridgewater and Ryan Tannehill are all quarterbacks with varying degrees of starting success in the league while Tom Brady and Philip Rivers are veterans entering free agency.  Add in Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Nick Foles, Derek Carr, Joe Flacco, and Jacoby Brissett,  two potential cut candidates, and you have a third of the teams in the NFL potentially changing 2019 week 1 starters.  This is an offseason we do not have precedent for in terms of the quarterback free agent depth.  There is a big fall out and change likely to happen.

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Grinding the Mocks with Benjamin Robinson

I was joined by a special guest, Benjamin Robinson of GrindingtheMocks.com to discuss his NFL draft data and how we should be thinking of NFL mock drafts leading up to the NFL Draft.   

You can find Benjamin on Twitter @benj_robinson

You can get more audio content at patreon.com/analyticsofdynasty

You can find The Analytics of Dynasty 2020 Edition at analyticsofdynasty.com/shop.