The plan at the top of the board is to trade down. I like Breece Hall, but he’s a day two running back going 1.01. Part of our process should be to consider the overall draft pedigree of the class.
In start 1QB leagues, I’ve tracked the data rookie ADP going back to 2008 and used the NFL Draft pedigree to create some bench marks for average pedigree in ranges of rookie drafts.
Only one player, Drake London, is an above-average pedigree for the top 3 picks of rookie drafts.
Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams, Chris Olave, Jahan Dotson, and Treylon Burks all are above the threshold of picks 4-6. If you say the class is bad, you miss the fact it’s rich in the middle of the first round. Exploiting this is key with arbitraging these positions.
I’ve included those wide receivers, with Skyy Moore and Christian Watson in a tier. The bet of Moore and Watson are ceiling. Do they have lower floors of guys like Dotson? Yes. Do they have more ceiling? Yes. Moore could be Mahomes’s WR1 in a year. Watson is limited, but so was James Jones when he led the league in receiving touchdowns. I also put James Cook in this tier. This is an interesting balance of base rates. Cook’s base rate is higher than the first round wide receivers, but I think he’s a below average running back so I think he belongs in the tier but blending in rather than standing out. I would aggressively move down for veterans, later draft pedigree, or future pedigree in a move down.
I have the rest of the tier notes on the board. Also check out the podcast I did on the release of the board.
2022 Superflex Rookie Board – Updated 5/4/22