2021 Rookie Draft Board

The plan at the top of the board is easy: Trevor Lawrence is the top pick in superlex rookie drafts. If you want to trade down, you can but understand it is a gap in valuation that should be extracted. Taking multiple top 6 to 7 shots instead of one shot at 1.01 is doable, but I’d probably ask for more assets as the market should demand it.

From a strategic perspective, selecting wide receivers over first round running back is -EV. Chase may be different, but I’m not making an exception to the rule. I have Harris as the best non QB rookie. I think there is a legitimate debate between Pitts and Harris in TE premium formats. Pitts is going ahead of Harris in startup drafts by a healthy margin (almost 2 full rounds). If you want to get exposure to both, go Pitts over Harris in rookie drafts, then take Harris in the fourth round of a startup draft. That’s good arbitrage process. Etienne is right there in the same tier, and I get the argument for him ahead of Harris and Pitts. I think it is close between Pitts and Etienne, though I suspect the market will be strongly Pitts over Etienne.

The next tier is QBs versus Williams versus Chase. I would probably take Lance and Fields ahead of Chase, with Wilson and Williams thereafter. Second round RB versus first round WR is a good proxy for the position, but I think Chase is special and will go Chase over Williams.

The next tier is Mac Jones with Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle and Rashod Bateman, and Sermon. I think Mac Jones leads the tier. Bateman is my WR2, but I’m unenthusiastic about it. Sermon is my RB4 and I’m enthuastic about it. I don’t think it matters because Sermon is going to go after Bateman if I had to guess. I’m willing to aggressively get to 11 or 12 to take Sermon, giving multiple later second round picks the preferred route. After those three Smith and Waddle would be my go to options, as a mini-tier of their own. Tier 4 is key, as I think there is a massive drop (see the red line!) thereafter. I highlighted these players in green. This is a get inside the line type situation. Freiermuth as a Cole Kmet type turn player is where I’m hoping to land him. If Toney is the last of the top 7 WRs on the board, I’m fine collecting pedigree as there ain’t no beauty queens in this locality.

Tommy Tremble is the Josiah Degura falling TE pedigree collection profile this year. Hubbard, Carter and Gainwell all have interesting injury away type appeal. At QB position, I’d rather take a developmental type than a situational wide receiver. All have appeal for certain reasons, I’d probably pick Trask then Mond.

2021 Superflex Rookie Board

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