Storylines to Watch: Third Year Second Round Running Backs 

With the off season in full effect, I’m highlighting a list of eight story lines I am watching in the off season.  One each day that draw on threads from The Analytics of Dynasty 2020 Edition.

Third Year Second Round Running Backs 

28% of running backs drafted in the second round of the NFL Draft who missed the first two years hit for a top 24 seasonal finish in their career.  The number only drops to 25% with a miss in Y3, but this places Derrius Guice (RB27 in February ADP) , Kerryon Johnson (RB23) and Ronald Jones (RB39) in worse prior history than the market appreciates.  Guice and Johnson have been hampered by injury history, with the best performance coming from Ronald Jones with an RB25 finish in 2019 and is also the cheapest.

Storylines to Watch: TE Value in 2020 Drafts

With the off season in full effect, I’m highlighting a list of eight story lines I am watching in the off season.  One each day that draw on threads from The Analytics of Dynasty 2020 Edition.

Tight End May Have Value This Year

The tight end position was largely valueless in terms of depressed pedigree last year.  This year, O.J. Howard (TE14 in February ADP) and David Njoku (TE16) are at crossroads of their career.  Both seem like misfits on their team, but represent strong profiles as first round tight ends.  The differences in their resumes are notable.  First round tight ends with three years of experience and no top 12 finishes like Howard, hit 50% of the time for a top 12 seasonal finish.  On the other hand, first round tight ends with a top 12 seasonal finish like Njoku, hit 81% of the time for another top 12 seasonal finish.  Add in the Austin Hooper (TE6) and Hunter Henry (TE8) who are free agents with late risers in 2019 in the form of Mike Gisecki (TE13) and Tyler Higbee (TE12), and you have major tight end value fluctuation.

Storylines to Watch: Dak vs Lamar

With the off season in full effect, I’m highlighting a list of eight story lines I am watching in the off season.  One each day that draw on threads from The Analytics of Dynasty 2020 Edition.

Value Spread Between Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson’s 2019 was a massive QB1 finish.  He is certainly inside the line of top 6 QB finishers who project to long-term success (see the Superflex chapter!), but he was supported by an unrealistic 8.9% touchdown rate and historic rushing output.  Prescott, on the other hand, who finished as QB2 had a more realistic 5% touchdown rate on the NFL’s top offense in total yardage.  Jackson is going at QB2 while Prescott is going at QB5 in February ADP and is a dark horse candidate for QB1 in 2020.

 

Storylines to Watch: Quarterback in Flux

With the off season in full effect, I’m highlighting a list of eight story lines I am watching in the off season.  One each day that draw on threads from The Analytics of Dynasty 2020 Edition.

Quarterbacks in Flux

There is a potential for massive movement in the free-agent market at quarterback.  Dak Prescott and Jameis Winston are still firmly in their prime window coming off strong seasons.  Marcus Mariota, Teddy Bridgewater and Ryan Tannehill are all quarterbacks with varying degrees of starting success in the league while Tom Brady and Philip Rivers are veterans entering free agency.  Add in Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Nick Foles, Derek Carr, Joe Flacco, and Jacoby Brissett,  two potential cut candidates, and you have a third of the teams in the NFL potentially changing 2019 week 1 starters.  This is an offseason we do not have precedent for in terms of the quarterback free agent depth.  There is a big fall out and change likely to happen.

Storylines to Watch: Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold on the experience cliff

With the off season in full effect, I’m highlighting a list of eight story lines I am watching in the off season.  One each day that draw on threads from The Analytics of Dynasty 2020 Edition.

Jones vs Darnold on the experience cliff

In the base rates chapter of the book, I dove into players who have yet to hit for a starter season.  Quarterbacks drafted in the top 10 of the NFL Draft who missed their first season hit 56% of the time.  That leaves a quarterback like Danel Jones with a good outlook.  Of those that missed in their first two years, their hit rate drops to 47%.  With an extra year of experience, the hit rate drops 9% but leaves him on a dangerous cliff.  Top 10 quarterbacks who miss three straight years only hit 11% of the time.  If Darnold misses this year, he is on a dangerous track, while Jones remains insulated for two more seasons.  In February ADP, Jones (13) and Darnold (15) were going very close in ADP, with Jones the more insulated player historically.

Storylines to Watch: Dak and Amari are Free Agents

With the off season in full effect, I’m highlighting a list of eight story lines I am watching in the off season.  One each day that draw on threads from The Analytics of Dynasty 2020 Edition.

Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson are Free Agents

One of the more interesting free agency stories this season is the Dallas Cowboys.  Both Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper are looking to reset the market at their positions, with recent news reports indicating Prescott will be franchise tagged.  If Prescott is getting tagged, Cooper is in the driver’s seat.  He will either write his own check to stay in Dallas or get paid by someone else in free agency.  The player in the best position to capitalize?  Michael Gallup.  Third round wide receivers who hit for a top 24 seasonal finish like Gallup hit 50% of the time for another top 24 seasonal finish.  He is WR27 in January ADP.